Oak Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

710
FXUS66 KLOX 071106
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
406 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...07/239 AM.

Hot conditions will continue over the valleys and mountains into
Tuesday with the hottest temperatures occuring today. Widespread
cooling is expected Tuesday through Friday. Night through morning
low clouds will continue along the coast, with dense fog and low
visibilities at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/335 AM.

The marine layer has been smooshed to under 1000 ft and this along
with weak sfc gradients has allowed for areas of dense fog to form
from Santa Barbara to Long Beach. The marine layer will insulate
the near shore area from the heat with max temps only in the 70s.
Like ydy the marine layer will be slow to clear and will lurk just
off the coast in the afternoon. Max temps will be very different
away from the cool marine air. 590 hgts and an already warm
airmass will allow for max temps to climb to 95 to 105 degrees in
the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior. These max temps
are 12 to 18 degrees above normal and excessive heat warnings and
advisories (LAXNPWLOX) continue through this evening to warn of
the dangers posed by the heat.

Looks for another early arrival of the low clouds this evening
from Santa Barbara City to Long Beach. The threat of dense fog
will continue as well.

Gradients change little on Tuesday but hgts fall to 584 dam
through the day as a weak, saggy and dry trof moves through the
sate. The lowering hgts will bring 4 to 8 locally 10 degrees of
cooling to areas away from the near shore area (which will see
little change in temps due to the marine layer). This cooling will
be enough to eliminate the need for heat products, but max temps
will remain 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees above normal away from the
coast.

The low clouds will push in a little further Tuesday night, since
the marine layer will be deeper. The deeper marine layer will also
greatly reduce the amount of dense fog.

On Wednesday the marine inversion will be weaker and this will
allow for better and faster clearing of the low clouds. Hgts and
sfc gradients do not change much and max temps will be very
similar to Tuesday`s values.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/330 AM.

Decent confidence in the xtnd fcst as the deterministic mdls are
in decent agreement and the ensemble spread has shrunk.

It looks like there will be fairly benign weather through the
period. On Thursday and Friday Srn CA will be in between an upper
high to the east and and upper low to the NW. Hgts will slowly
fall through the period as the upper low inches closer. Night
through morning low clouds will continue across the coasts and
lower coastal vlys. Max temps will cool a degree or two each day.
Max temps will mostly be in the 70s across the coasts and in the
80s and lower 90s for the vlys. Despite the cooling most max temps
will remain above normal.

The upper low will transverse the state over the weekend. This
will continue the slow cooling trend, Some north to south offshore
flow develops as well which may limit the amount of low clouds
across the SBA south coast. It will also likely produce some winds
through the I-5 corridor. Even though Sunday will be the coolest
of the next 7 max temps will end up above normal away from the
beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1050Z.

Around 0445Z, the marine layer depth was near 700 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2300 feet with a
temperature near 31 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal
terminals. High confidence in the current forecast for valley and
desert terminals. Higher confidence exists in flight categories
versus timing.

LIFR conditions are likely at coastal terminals through at least
16Z, then conditions will likely improve at least one flight
category between 16Z and 18Z. There is a moderate-to-high chance
of VLIFR conditions through 15Z. There is a chance of scattering
out as late as 23Z. An early return of LIFR conditions should be
expected at coastal terminals.

At valley and deserts, VFR conditions are expected through the
period, except for a moderate chance of sub-VFR conditions at Los
Angeles County valley terminals.

KLAX...LIFR conditions will continue through at least 16Z. There
is a 50-60 percent chance of VLIFR conditions through 15Z.
Conditions could improve to the IFR category as soon as 16Z, or as
late as 19Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 19Z or as
late 22Z. LIFR to IFR conditions could spread in as early as 23Z
or as late as 04Z.

KBUR...There is a 30 percent of sub-VFR conditions through 15Z,
otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...07/333 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for seas. Less confidence in the
current forecast for winds.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a
high-to-likely (50-80 percent) chance of SCA level winds
developing after this afternoon through Thursday, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. The highest chances will
be for the waters beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast and
for the waters around Point Conception. There is a low-to-
moderate (20-30 percent) chance of low end Gale Force winds
Tuesday evening through Wednesday night.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a low-to-moderate
(20-40 percent) chance of SCA winds for the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel, into the San Pedro Channel, and in the
vicinity of Point Dume each afternoon and evening through
Thursday.

A shallow marine layer will continue to generate patchy dense fog
across portions of the coastal waters through at least Tuesday
morning, especially in the overnight through morning hours.
Visibilities of one nautical mile or less can be expected.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this
      evening for zones
      38-88-342>345-351>353-356>358-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 341-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this
      morning for zones 349-350-354-355-362. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 366-368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...JMB

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox